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It was two months ago when the Villa attacker was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while the Villa manager berated him for missing a pass in behind. Back then, as Villa failed to win in six, the question was if his displays were a symptom or the source of the side's more general malaise.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

In the latest match, however, the sideline response proved to be decidedly more positive. When the England international curled home his brace-sealing goal to reclaim the lead for Villa, Emery tore off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The team were on their way to ten wins in a row , after failing to win their initial half-dozen matches, find themselves a mere three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.

Are They Genuine Challengers?

It remains a particularly tough proposition to address. History, a general sense of Villa, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they have not been entirely convincing in many games, even as the wins have stacked up.

According to statistical analysis, in only two games has the team registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a club which has strung together a ten-match winning streak, they look curiously susceptible – but currently the fine lines are swinging for them.

The Rogers Recipe

Their recent policy seems to be to exchange chances with the opposition and then rely on their star man to bail them out with some crisp finishes. This occurred away to Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and again when facing the Red Devils.

Rogers' first goal came from a superb shot, arced precisely inside the post from a wide position. The follow-up goal was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

Can It Last?

Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opposition registered more efforts and more efforts on goal. Villa have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those fixtures.

Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival they must confront as the season progresses. The forward, almost certainly, cannot maintain drilling his shots into the top corner forever.

A Case for Belief

Maybe there exists an alternative path where, instead of luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures may yet return to peak condition.

• The centre-forward might resume finding the net regularly.
• Jadon Sancho might become the force he was at Borussia Dortmund.
• The defensive duo are due to come back from the treatment room, bolstering a periodically leaky defence.

Maybe within that lies the possibility of a title challenge, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.

Enjoying the Ride

However, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would be third at Christmas. And certainly back in October, no one envisioned Rogers as the year closed would be at the forefront of a title charge and appearing as an essential Three Lions star.

The current run should be enjoyed precisely because it feels so unlikely. As the hero stood in front of the Villa faithful after the match conducting the cheers, he seemed to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are rare in football and must be appreciated.